Morning News: May 6, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on May 6th, 2026 at 7:06 am

Yen Spikes to 10-Week High and Sparks Intervention Speculation

US Gasoline Hits $4.50, Nears All-Time High as Iran Fuel Crunch Grows

High Gas Prices Wreak Havoc on America’s Army of Supercommuters

The Message Isn’t More Housing Supply, It’s Don’t Own a Home

How Blue States Go From Rent Seeking to Rent Losing

A Fight Over Dirt in Utah Hints at the Future of America’s Public Lands

How Trump’s $12 Billion Stash of Critical Minerals Risks Distorting Markets

The DOJ Is Breaking Its Own Rules to Litigate in the Media

Mnuchin Says There Is No ‘Break-the-Glass’ Solution for US Borrowing

Powell Is Right to Demand Clarity on Fed Independence

End Quarterly Earnings Reports? Here’s the Debate

Inside the Debate About Drastically Expanding Trump Accounts

Morgan Stanley Debuts Crypto Trading, Undercuts Rivals on Price

X User Tricks Grok Into Sending Them $200,000 In Crypto Using Morse Code

Buffett’s Big Bets Will Haunt the Abel Era at Berkshire

Santander Pitches Buy Now, Pay Later Loan Risk to Investors

Illegal Lotteries Are Beating Governments at Their Own Game

A Proposed Billionaire Tax Exposes the Dual-Share Racket

SpaceX Proposes $55 Billion to Begin Terafab Project in Texas

Parents and Tech Companies – Not Government – Must Protect Children

American Factories Lag in Adopting A.I. This Drugmaker Is an Exception

Bayer to Buy Eye-Drug Developer Perfuse Therapeutics for Up to $2.45 Billion

CVS’s Results Add to Positive Momentum for Health-Insurance Industry

Nintendo Under Pressure to Raise Switch 2 Prices to Protect Margins

Disney Films, Parks Lift Profit in Debut Quarter for New CEO

New Disney CEO Gives Vision for Company as Revenue Rises

With Spirit’s Mugging, Antitrust Imagined An Economy That Didn’t Exist

Airlines Are Cracking Down on Portable Power Banks

Storied Toolmaker Closes Its Last Hometown Plant—and Blames Its Tape Measures

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CWS Market Review – May 5, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on May 5th, 2026 at 6:05 pm

(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

The old Wall Street adage tells us to “sell in May, and go away, don’t come back till St. Leger Day.” There’s a bit of truth to this statement. Wall Street hasn’t performed well over the half of the year from May through October.

I crunched all the Dow’s data going back to 1896. From May 6 to October 29, the Dow has posted an average gain of 0.86%. For the rest of the time, the Dow has gained an average of 7.16%. That’s remarkable. Essentially, 90% of the stock market’s gain has only come during half the year.

Here’s what the average year looks like for the Dow:

To be sure, I certainly don’t advocate for any trading strategy based on this data. It’s wholly impractical. I simply think it’s fascinating that over the long term, the market has showed some calendar biases. This shouldn’t be too surprising.

Wall Street just finished off a very successful April. This was the single best month for stocks in over five years. The S&P 500 gained more than 10%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up over 15%. The tech-heavy index has been on a very impressive run.

On Tuesday, the S&P 500 closed at yet another all-time high. It’s especially welcoming to see these gains come during earnings season.

Another Strong Earnings Season

We’re already nearly two-thirds of the way through earnings season, and Q1 is has turned out to be a very good time for Wall Street. Another 128 stocks are due to report earnings this week. So far, 63% of stocks in the S&P 500 have reported earnings, and of those, 84% have beaten estimates. If that holds up, it will be our best “beat rate” in five years.

Overall, 63% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported actual results for Q1 2026 to date. Of these companies, 84% have reported actual EPS above estimates.

Not only are more companies beating expectations but they’re beating by larger margins as well. For this earnings season, companies have, on average, topped expectations by more than 20%. That’s nearly three times the five-year average.

Meta beat estimates by 56%. Amazon beat by 70% and Alphabet beat by 90%. Thanks to the Mag 7, earnings growth for Q1 is now running at 27%. To put that in perspective, at the end of Q1, Wall Street was expecting Q1 earnings growth of 13%. The S&P 500 is on pace for its sixth quarter in a row of double-digit earnings growth.

Looking at revenues, 81% of the companies in the S&P 500 have topped their revenue estimates. If that rate holds, then it will be the best quarter for sales beats in five years. The weak spot is that companies aren’t beating top-line growth by very much. Currently, companies have exceeded sales growth forecasts by only 1.9%. That’s roughly in line with long-term estimates.

I’m pleased to see that analysts have been increasing their earnings estimates for next quarter and for the rest of this year. During April, the estimates for Q2 were increased by 2.1%. We won’t get those numbers until the summer. During April, analysts increased their full-year 2026 estimates by 3.4%. They now see earnings for the S&P 500 of $331.23 per share.

For this calendar year, Wall Street currently expects earnings growth of 21.3%. That would give the index a forward P/E Ratio of 20.9, which is high but not crazy.

Looking Forward to Friday’s Jobs Report

This Friday, we’ll get the jobs report for April. This will be an interesting one because it will be the first jobs report to reflect the full impact of Operation Epic Fury. The last report was encouraging, but it came after a long string of disappointing reports. Was March an exception or is the jobs market still slowing down?

This morning, we got the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, better known as the JOLTS report. It said there are currently 6.87 million job openings in March which was basically unchanged from February. The survey said that layoffs rose while hiring improved. Also, more Americans are quitting their jobs, which is a good sign for jobs. It signals confidence that there are better jobs out there.

Job openings have come down more or less steadily since peaking at a record 12.3 million in March 2022 as the U.S. economy bounded back from COVID-19 lockdowns. High interest rates, a response to an outburst of inflation in 2021-2022, uncertainty over President Donald Trump’s policies, and, potentially, the disruptive impact of artificial intelligence have all discouraged robust hiring.

In March, the U.S. economy added 178,00 new jobs. For Friday, the consensus on Wall Street is that the economy added 57,000 and the unemployment rate stayed at 4.3%. For March, average hourly earnings increased by just 0.2%. That’s not so hot. This time, Wall Street is looking for an increase of 0.3%.

We’ll get a preview tomorrow when ADP releases its report on private payrolls. Wall Street expects a gain of 84,000 jobs.

Happy 130th Birthday to the DJIA

I mentioned earlier that I looked at all the Dow’s data going back to 1896. Later this month, the Dow Jones Industrial Average will celebrate its 130th birthday. The index first appeared on May 26, 1896. Its closing value that day was 40.94. To give you an idea of how long the Dow has been around, its birth is closer to the Declaration of Independence than it is to today.

The index was the brainchild of Charles Dow, who was the editor of the Wall Street Journal. When the index started, it only had 12 stocks. The list grew to 20 stocks in 1916, and it reached its present total of 30 stocks in 1928.

The index has only changed 59 times over the last 130 years. That’s an enviably low turnover rate. In fact, the Dow has had two separate streaks of going 17 years without a single change—once from 1939 to 1956, and again from 1959 to 1976.

Until a few years ago, General Electric was the only one of the original 12 from 1896 left in the index, but GE was removed eight years ago. Although it was on the first list, GE was added and a deleted a few times before it was added for a long time in 1907.

A few stocks have been long-time members.

ExxonMobil or Standard Oil of New Jersey (XOM) had been a member since 1928 before it was dropped in 2020. Procter & Gamble (PG) is still in after being added in 1932. Coca-Cola (KO) has been a member continuously since 1987. International Business Machines (IBM) has been in since 1979 after being given the boot in 1939.

The lesson for investors here is how quickly things change. Anyone remember Johns Manville? It was in the Dow for over 50 years.

The reason I bring up the Dow’s history is because therein lies a good investing lesson. The keepers of the index decided to kick out IBM in 1939, only to change their minds 40 years later and bring it back. Over those 40 years, shares of IBM soared 22,000%.

I can’t hide my feelings. I think the Dow is a lousy index. I rarely refer to it here. The reason is that it’s just 30 stocks, and the index is weighted by price instead of by market value. McDonald’s has a greater weighting in the index than Apple even though the latter has 20 times the market value. Perhaps that made sense 80 years ago, but it’s not needed today. The only reason the Dow is still in the news is because the index is owned by the Wall Street Journal.

Also, the Dow hasn’t been a continuous index since 1896. Wall Street shut it down in 1914 with the outbreak of World War I. In 1916, the Dow folks started a new index and later backdated it to 1914.

As a result, the new index is not continuous with the previous index. You’ll often see December 12, 1914, listed as one of the worst days in market history. It’s not. They’re comparing two different indexes.

Still, I have to give credit to Charles Dow for starting the index. In the last 100 years, the index is up 350-fold (not including inflation and dividends). Anything that’s still quoted 130 years later deserves a tip of my cap.

Here’s to 130 more!

That’s all for now. Stayed tuned for Friday’s jobs report. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

Morning News: May 5, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on May 5th, 2026 at 7:09 am

Oil Prices Slide but Remain Elevated as Middle East Tensions Escalate

The Risk of the Iran War Restarting Is Irrationally High

Big Oil and the White House Face a Pump Price Reckoning

Iraq Slashes Oil Prices for Buyers Willing to Transit Hormuz

As Oil Prices Stay High, China Doubles Down on Wind Power

Hong Kong’s Economy Expands at Strongest Pace in Nearly Five Years

HSBC Shares Slump 6% On Surprise $400 Million Hit Linked to MFS Collapse

The Much Bigger Government In Rand Paul’s “Six Penny” Budget Plan

A Bill That Would Result In Us Losing Our Credit Card Rewards

The Return for These Investors Isn’t Money, It’s More Affordable Housing

One Calf Shows Why Record Beef Prices Still Aren’t Coming Down

Jump and Securitize Join Forces to Trade Tokenized Stocks

Dollar Dominance Crushes Lagarde’s European Crypto Ambitions

Coinbase to Slash 14% of Workforce as Part of Restructuring

Apple Explores Using Intel and Samsung to Build Main Device Chips in the US

Data Centers Aren’t the Enemy — They’re the Future

Anthropic and Wall Street Giants Join Forces to Create New A.I. Firm

AI’s Hottest Private Firms Have Booming Crypto Shadow Market

Solar in Space Is a Solution in Search of a Problem

Team Trump Tries to Blame Biden for Spirit Airlines’ Collapse, But Reality Gets in the Way

Why the Collapse of Spirit Airlines Means Higher Fares for Everyone

The Secret Team Blowing Up Ford’s Assembly Line to Make a $30,000 Electric Truck

Harley-Davidson’s New Boss Wants to Sell You a Bike You Can Actually Afford

Secret Recordings, Hidden Shares and a Family Rift at South Korea’s LG

How Corporations Use the Texas Two-Step to Avoid Asbestos Lawsuits

Pfizer Revenue Rises But Profit Falls Amid Boosted R&D Spending

Amazon Expands Logistics Arm to Outside Companies

Amazon’s Freight Rivals Won’t Just Roll Over

Grab Expects Another Strong Year Ahead Despite Headwinds

The Hospitality Realty Inflection Point, and the Meaning of 2026

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Morning News: May 4, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on May 4th, 2026 at 7:08 am

China’s Unprecedented Defiance of US Sanctions Triggers Showdown

How US and China’s Allies Struggle to Balance Trade Ties With Both

Oil Jumps as Iran Resists Trump’s Offer to Help Ships Through Strait of Hormuz

OPEC Plus, in Symbolic Gesture, to Increase Oil Production

Here’s What’s Shoring Up the Global Economy During the Energy Shock

‘City of Glass’ Is Under Threat From Iran War

Not Even Japanese Bathhouses Are Immune From Shocks of Iran War

These Countries Embrace E.V.s to Avoid Oil Price Shocks

What the Tax Code Actually Rewards, Why Most Have It Backwards

Beware the Bubble — in the Bond Market

Why Jerome Powell Decided to Stay at the Fed

The New Fed May Cut Rates, Though Without Much Rate Impact

Bank Regulatory Rulebooks Are Dangerously Bereft of AI Guidance

Five Takeaways From Berkshire CEO Greg Abel’s First Annual Shareholder Meeting as Host

Warren Buffett Can’t Bequeath Abel Patient Investors

Trillions in Retirement Dollars Flow Into Opaque Trusts

The $11 Billion Casino-Style Economy Built on Players Who Can Never Cash Out

Why Almost Everyone Loses—Except A Few Sharks—On Prediction Markets

A Federal Housing Handout Has Ended. Foreclosures Will Follow

These Are the Hiring Hot Spots Where College Grads Are Landing Good Jobs

Why the A.I. Job Apocalypse (Probably) Won’t Happen

AI Chipmakers in Korea, Taiwan Drive Asian Stocks to Record

Musk Sketches Apocalyptic Vision in Bid to Block OpenAI’s Transition

Anthropic Nears $1.5 Billion Joint Venture With Wall Street Firms

Anthropic’s IPO Rush Runs on Narrative, Not Numbers

Nvidia Rival Cerebras Seeks to Raise $3.5 Billion in US IPO

An Aluminum Crisis Is Roiling the Auto Industry

GameStop Offers to Buy eBay for $56 Billion

Hubbell to Buy NSI Industries for $3 Billion

Norwegian Cruise Line Cuts Outlook Amid Soft Demand, Higher Fuel Costs

Spirit Airlines’ Demise Could Help Other Airlines

Food Industry Sees a Threat in Kennedy’s Push to Define ‘Ultraprocessed’ Food

The Cannabis Industry’s New Best Friend? President Trump

Tyson Raises Profit Outlook as Protein Demand Offsets Beef Pain

Whatnot Has Americans Hooked on Livestream Shopping

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Morning News: May 1, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on May 1st, 2026 at 7:02 am

Will the Iran War Make Trump Gun-Shy or Trigger-Happy?

How the Strait of Hormuz Has Become a Weapon of War

Why U.S. Oil Companies Are Not Plugging the World’s Energy Gap

Exxon, Chevron Beat Profit Estimates on War-Driven Oil Rally

Blockbuster Oil Company Profits Revive Calls for Windfall Tax

Nvidia, Microsoft, AWS Expanding Classified Military AI Use

Why Countries Are Stocking Up on Gold

Where in the World Is All That Gold Stored?

The World’s Central Banks Are Wrestling With a Gigantic Problem

Japan Likely Spent About $34.5 Billion on Yen Intervention

War Forces G-7 Officials to Pencil in Possible Rate Hikes

The Fed Is Setting Policy Off of a Partisan Mood Ring

What Strings Will Trump Attach to Dollar Lifelines?

‘Golden’ or ‘Garbage’: Milken Signals New Era for Private Credit

More Wall Street Leverage Won’t Help Main Street

Jane Street’s Record Year Translates Into a $2.68 Million Payout Per Employee

Berkshire Has a Website From the ’90s and Buffett Fans Say Don’t Mess With It

American Farmers Shun USDA Surveys as Trust in Data Erodes

Taxing the Wealthy Won’t Reduce Their Power

New York’s Ultra-Rich Defend Citadel’s Griffin As Penthouse Dig Turns Personal

Elon Musk’s Tesla Compensation Last Year Surpassed $158 Billion

How Do So Many People Already Own Elon Musk’s SpaceX?

Apple Forecast Tops Estimates Even as Mac Shortages Linger

As Anthropic’s Valuation Reaches $1T, Why Is SBF Incarcerated?

From Discord to Molotov Cocktails: The Dangers of AI Doom Rhetoric

OpenAI CFO Sees ‘Vertical Wall of Demand’ for Products

Meta’s AI Spending Overshadows Addiction Lawsuits, Youth Bans

The $1.7 Billion Trip

Since Congress Let Obamacare Subsidies Expire, Millions Are Dropping Coverage

Electric Cars Were a Big Deal at the Turn of the Century. The Last Century.

The NBA Draft Is Bad for Business

Horse Racing Bets on an Influencer to Bring In New Fans

What Hermes Can Learn From Rolex and Ferrari

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Morning News: April 30, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 30th, 2026 at 7:09 am

Oil Hits Wartime High Above $120 a Barrel as Standoff Shows No End in Sight

Rising Fuel Prices Could Force Excruciating Choices on Economic Policies

Why the UAE and Saudi Arabia Have Drifted Apart

Why the U.A.E. is Quitting OPEC

It’s Boating Season, But Only If You Can Afford Fuel

Japan Issues ‘Final’ Warning Before Intervention, Lifting Yen

Europe’s Economy Stutters as War Drives Up Inflation

U.S. Economy Grew at 2% Rate in First Quarter

Why Powell Is Right to Stay On at the Fed

Warsh Eyes Fed ‘Regime Change’ With Less Talk, New Models

Warsh Faces High Hurdle for Rate Cuts as Powell Readies to Pass the Baton

Kevin Warsh Has No Good Reason to Lower Rates

Blue Owl Asset Growth Meets Estimates Amid Direct Lending Slump

India’s Homegrown $1 Billion High-Speed Trading Unicorn Goes Global

Warren Buffett Has Stepped Aside. Berkshire Is Now Greg Abel’s Show

How NFL Legend Steve Young Built a $10 Billion Fund

Palantir Is Making a French Chore Coat. Yes, That Palantir

Republicans Seem To Think Joe Biden Is President

Railroads Say Megadeal Would Cut Shipping Costs by $3.5 Billion

As Reliability Gaps Become More Apparent, Prepare for AI’s Dot.Com Moment

AI’s ‘Horrible Economics’ Aren’t the Problem, But the Plumbing Might Be

Alphabet, Amazon Outpace Meta in AI During Earnings Bonanza

Apple Earnings Become Sideshow With New CEO Ready to Grab Reins

RFK Jr. Should Get on Board With the White House

Lilly Raises Sales Forecast on Optimism About Obesity Pill

Cigna Revenue Rises on Evernorth Growth

Ford Reports Higher Profit Thanks Partly to Tariff Refund

Two NJ Malls Separated by Just Four Miles — and Very Different Fates

Hershey Beats Expectations, Buoyed by Charging Higher Prices

Gen Z Can’t Get Enough of Teensy ‘Grandma Watches’

Amazon Discusses ‘Apprentice’ Reboot—With Don Jr. as a Potential Host

Airbnb Hosts Prepped Their Homes for a World Cup Windfall. They’re Still Waiting.

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Morning News: April 29, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 29th, 2026 at 7:09 am

The Global Energy Order Is Breaking Down

Loss of Emirates Further Weakens OPEC’s Influence

Iranians Feel the Pain as Their Economy Descends Into a Death Spiral

No, the Iranian Oil Industry Isn’t About to ‘Explode’

U.S. Gas Prices Climb Further as Effects of War Reverberate

King Charles Urges US to Reject Isolationism in Landmark Speech

The Donald Trump Tariff Vindication That Still, Still Isn’t

Trump’s Goal of Reshoring Comes Up Short After a Year of Tariffs

Republicans Eye Capital Gains Tax Cut to Ease Voters’ Anxieties

North Korea’s Nuclear Arsenal Is Outgrowing US Missile Defenses

When War Is the Trade, “Insider Trading” Becomes Essential

College Football’s Biggest Gambling Scandal Also Reveals How to Prevent It

America’s Broken Politics Are Dragging It Down a Fiscal Black Hole

80 Seconds of Big Tech Earnings Will Decide Stock Market’s Fate

Blue Owl Scrutiny to Ramp Up With Shares Near ‘Doomsday’ Levels

Swiss Bank UBS Exceeds Profit Forecasts as Iran War Stokes Trading Volatility

GE HealthCare Drops After Cutting Outlook on War-Related Woes

Ibogaine Hype Is Outpacing the Science

Sleepless Americans Are Relying on Medicine and Pot to Doze Off

$24 Billion Deal to Create World’s Largest Elevator Company

Taxing Artificial Intelligence Would Be a Big Mistake

An OpenAI Bubble Is Not an AI Bubble

Junior Bankers Sick of Grunt Work Build $2 Billion AI Tool to Do the Job

Brookfield’s Compass Pulls Out of Massive Virginia Data Center

China’s Meta Backlash Renders Manus Model ‘Officially Dead’

We Won’t Outcompete China by Keeping U.S. Tech Small

The U.S. Wants to Ban China’s High-Tech Cars, but They’re Already Here in El Paso

Americans Are Embracing This Terrible Car-Buying Habit. It’s Costing Them Thousands of Dollars

Where Americans Are Drawing the Line on Price Increases

Retailers Flock to TikTok Shop to Find New Shoppers, Sales Growth

Starbucks Says Its Sales Rebound Is Gaining Momentum

New Disney Boss Is Tested by Trump and His Administration

The Stakes of Trump’s Latest Fight With Disney

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CWS Market Review – April 28, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 28th, 2026 at 6:02 pm

(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

Beginning on March 30 and ending yesterday, the S&P 500 gained 13.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 19.7%. I referenced similar numbers before, you’ll have to forgive me for any repetition, but this rally has been quite extraordinary.

The stock market has vaulted forward despite uncertain geopolitical events and growing problems with certain parts of the economy.

Are investors being foolish or are there solid fundamental reasons that justify higher equity prices?

Some market watchers are calling this a bubble. I think that’s very premature, although it could be true regarding certain tech stocks. If we were to go back to the start of 2022 and adjust the market’s gains for inflation, then the market has done decently well, but nothing out of the ordinary.

On Tuesday, we finally got a reversal of the previous trend. By that, I mean that the Nasdaq fell close to 1% while the Dow 30 was nearly flat. Gold and silver also did poorly on Tuesday.

I have been surprised by how strong growth stocks have been in the recent rally compared with value. Normally growth stocks lead during up markets, but I’m impressed by how wide the gap has been. Also, prior to the recent rally, value stocks had been holding up well compared with growth. That all got washed away in less than one month.

Here’s a look at how the S&P 500 Growth ETF (in black) has performed versus the S&P 500 Value ETF (green):

The oil market was shocked today by the UAE saying it’s withdrawing from OPEC. The country has consistently pushed for higher production quotas. Iran is expected to submit a revised peace proposal. President Trump rejected an earlier proposal.

The Federal Reserve meets again this week. The policy statement will be released tomorrow afternoon. I’ll spoil the ending for you: the Fed won’t be making any changes to interest rates.

But the Fed still may generate some news. That’s because the central bank finds itself in a difficult spot. Thanks to higher energy prices, Americans are suffering from higher inflation. At the same time, the broader economy could be slowing down. To be very blunt, the U.S. economy may need higher and lower rates at the same time. Since the Fed can’t possibly deliver that, I expect rates to stay the same for some time. Futures traders don’t see the Fed touching interest until the end of the next year.

Bear in mind that the recent consumer confidence report was the lowest on record. The April jobs report won’t be out until Friday, May 8, and it may not be a good one. The jobs report for March was surprisingly good (+178,000). In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to see that get revised lower.

What really caught my attention was the weak growth for average hourly earnings which rose only 0.2% for March. If problems show up in the economy, this is likely where we’ll see the pain first.

A Strong Earnings Season So far

Wall Street is currently digesting Q1 earnings. So far, it’s been a pretty good earnings season. The S&P 500 is currently on pace to report its sixth quarter in a row of double-digit earnings growth. (The following data is courtesy our friends at FactSet.)

This week, 180 stocks in the S&P 500 are due to report, along with 11 stocks in the Dow, and five of the Mag 7.

By the way, of the Mag 7 stocks, Wall Street desperately wants to hear how much they plan to invest in AI. In January, Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Meta said they’re aiming to spending $650 billion on AI this year. Wall Street wants to hear an update.

So far, 28% of companies in the S&P 500 have reported Q1 earnings. Of those, 84% have beaten Wall Street’s expectations. That’s well above the long-term average. (That’s right. On Wall Street, it’s expected that you beat expectations.)

Companies are also beating expectations by a larger-than-normal margin. Average earnings beats are coming in at 12.3% above consensus. That’s nearly twice the long-term average.

Earnings growth for Q1 is currently tracking at 15.1%. Actually, that number has steadily increased as we’ve seen better reports come out.

Quarterly revenue growth has been particularly strong. So far, 81% of companies have beaten their estimates for sales growth. The five-year average is at 70%. All told, companies are beating their sales consensus by 2%. For Q1, sales growth is currently tracking at 10.3%. Like earnings, that number has also trended higher. If that number holds, it will mark the best quarter for revenue growth since Q3 of 2022.

Wall Street expects very good earnings growth for this year. For 2026, expectations are currently running at 18.6%. For the remaining three quarters, the expectations are for Q2 at 20.6%, Q3 at 22.7% and Q4 at 20.4%. The forward P/E Ratio for the S&P 500 is currently at 20.9%. That’s high, but it’s not excessive.

As I look at these earnings reports, I’ve been especially impressed by the profit margin. Wide and rising operating margins are a quick and easy way to see if a company is doing well. For Q1, the market’s overall net profit margin is running at 13.4%. If that holds up, it will be highest one in FactSet’s record which goes back to 2009.

As impressive as these numbers are, Wall Street expects even better numbers this year. The current estimate for net margin is 14.1% for Q2, 14.6% for Q3 and 14.6% for Q4.

Looking at Church & Dwight

One of our former Buy List stocks, Church & Dwight (CHD) has not been performing well. I like to take notice when good companies have bad stocks. That’s often a good place to find a bargain.

Church & Dwight is your quintessential consumer staple. It tends to do well when the economy is suffering. A little more than a year ago, CHD got as high as $116 per share. Even though the market has rallied since then, shares of CHD are now trading around $96 per share. It even recently dipped below $92 per share.

Despite this, Church & Dwight’s business has remained strong. Is it really a good idea to make a long-term bet against a company that makes Arm & Hammer baking soda and Trojan condoms? Church Dwight has about 5,000 employees and it generates about $5 billion to $6 billion in sales each year. The company also makes laundry detergent, cat litter, toothpaste, deodorant, and OxiClean.

The company has beaten Wall Street’s earnings estimates for the last 12 quarters in a row. For this year, Wall Street expects earnings of $3.75 per share, and $4 per share for 2027.

Church Dwight recently raised its dividend by 4.2%. This was it 30th yearly increase in a row. In January, the company said it expects to grow earnings this year by 5% to 8%, which works out to 2026 earnings of $3.70 to $3.81 per share.

I also like that CHD has gradually exited slower-growing lower-margin businesses. That caused sales to decline, but it’s in the interest of the company over the long term. CHD also faces tariff issues as some of its products are outsourced to China.

CHD’s Q1 earnings report is due out on Friday, May 1.

That’s all for now. Stayed tuned for tomorrow’s policy statement from the Federal Reserve. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

Morning News: April 28, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 28th, 2026 at 7:03 am

Eurozone Inflation Expectations Jumped in March, But Pay Growth Outlook Unchanged

The War in Iran Is Causing China to Sell So Many Solar Panels That Your Jaw Will Drop

Iran Faces Economic Reckoning as Oil Storage Tanks Fill Up

UAE to Leave OPEC and OPEC+ Next Month to Pursue New Strategy

Reopening the Strait of Hormuz Will Take More Than US Power

The Saudis Could Help End the War. Will the US Listen?

Aramco Suspends LPG Deliveries Through May on Facility Damage

The World Needs Natural Gas Now, but the U.S. Is Exporting All It Can

It’s the Age of Electricity and America Isn’t Ready

Conservatism Could Save America. The Small-C Kind

A Government Limited by Past Debts Is the Ultimate Inheritance

How Populist Anger Fuels US ‘Tax the Rich’ Movement

The YIMBY Movement Needs Single Family Homes

Graduates Reset Ambitions in Pursuit of First Jobs

Transition to a New Fed Chair Is Unlikely to Mean Immediate Rate Cuts

The Fed’s Rate Cuts Are On Pause. But Are They Also Off the Table?

Private Credit’s Rude Awakening Gives Bond Funds a New Edge

Most Prediction Market Traders Are Losing Money While Bots Rack Up Gains

I Built an AI Trading Platform in Six Days. That’s Terrifying.

Chip Startup Aims to Shatter AI’s Dreaded Memory Wall

OpenAI-Linked Stocks Slump on Report It Missed Key Targets

OpenAI Is Shedding Baggage. Now It Needs a Jury’s Help

Is OpenAI Falling Further Behind in the A.I. Race?

Et Tu, Brute? What Elon Musk’s Clash With Sam Altman Is Really About.

Funds Pitching SpaceX Rush to Lure Retail Investors Before IPO

JetBlue Quarterly Loss Widens; Airline to Deepen Cost Cuts

Spirit Airlines’ Struggles Vivify a Signature Milton Friedman Quip

From the UK to South Korea, Consumers Turn to EVs as Oil Prices Spike

GM Boosts Profit Outlook as Pickups Buck Rising Gas Prices

Corning Profit, Core Revenue Rises

Coca-Cola Posts Best Sales Growth Since 2024 With Smaller Sizes

Sherwin-Williams Posts Higher Profit But Warns on Weak DIY Market

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Morning News: April 27, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 27th, 2026 at 7:05 am

The U.S. Started the War. The Rest of the World Is Feeling the Effects.

The Iran War Is Starting to Expose Cracks in China’s Economy

Moody’s Upgrades China Outlook to Stable on Economic Resilience

The Iran War May Become a ‘Phoney Sitzkrieg’

The World’s Food Supply Is Under a Quadruple Attack

Shell Agrees to Buy Canada’s ARC Resources for $13.6 Billion

Ahead of the USMCA Review, Trade Personifies Wealth Creation

ECB and BOE to Leave Key Rates Unchanged as Fate of Hormuz Strait Remains Unclear

Aren’t We Making Too Big Of A Deal About The Fed’s Balance Sheet?

Fed to Hold Interest Rates as Political Drama Overshadows Policy Debate

Fed Chair Powell Confronts His Final Big Decision: Stay or Go

US Stocks Will Keep Ignoring the Iran War

Private Credit Funds Are Working Precisely As Designed To

FanDuel Is Playing Catch-Up on Prediction Markets

The $1 Million Retirement Myth: Here’s What to Save Instead

Citi to Boost Japan, China Investment Banking Teams, Plans Senior Sector-Focused Hires

Goldman, JPMorgan Show Wall Street’s Split in Quantum Computing Race

Ligand Pharmaceuticals Is Buying Xoma for Nearly $740 Million

United Airlines Abandons Pursuit of Rival American Airlines

Airlines Looking for Fare Increases to Stick, Even When Jet Fuel Costs Fall

The Rise of the High-Range, Less Expensive E.V.

The Rising Chinese Automaker Not Named BYD

How Larry Ellison’s Wealth Differs From Other Tech Billionaires

Elon Musk Says Saving for Retirement Is Irrelevant Because AI Is Going To Create a World of Abundance: ‘It Won’t Matter’

Musk vs. Altman: A High-Stakes A.I. Clash Goes to Court

China Orders the Unwinding of Meta’s Acquisition of an A.I. Start-Up

Apple Grandmaster Tim Cook Is Playing 3D Chess With AI

Colorado River Water Woes Threaten Arizona’s AI Boom

Re/Max Is Being Sold to a Tech-Focused Real-Estate Firm

Verizon Adds Wireless Subscribers in First Full Quarter Under New CEO

Spotify Premium Now Includes Peloton Classes, Marking Push Into Fitness Content

American Whiskey Distilleries Reroute Shipments to Singapore as Trade Tensions Bite

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